Li Jiawen,Li Ying,Niu Wenyuan,et al.Risk factors related to anastomotic leakage after operation for type Ⅲ congenital esophageal atresia and risk modeling[J].Journal of Clinical Pediatric Surgery,,22():329-334.[doi:10.3760/cma.j.cn101785-202212008-006]
Risk factors related to anastomotic leakage after operation for type Ⅲ congenital esophageal atresia and risk modeling
- Keywords:
- Esophageal Atresia; Surgical Procedures; Operative; Postoperative Complications; Anastomotic Leak; Risk Factors
- Abstract:
- Objective To explore the risk factors related to anastomotic leakage after type Ⅲ congenital esophageal atresia (CEA) surgery and construct a risk model to provide theoretical rationales for formulating the corresponding preventive measures.Methods Retrospective analysis was performed for clinical data of 135 children with type Ⅲ CEA operated from January 2017 to December 2022.Based upon the presence or absence of anastomotic leakage after surgery,they were assigned into two groups of anastomotic leakage (n=28) and non-anastomotic leakage (n=107).Univariate and binary Logistic regression analyses were employed for screening out independent risk factors.Risk model was established and nomogram constructed.Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and bootstrap method were utilized for evaluating the Logistic regression model.Results Diagnostic typing,hypoproteinemia and duration of ventilator use were identified as independent risk factors for anastomotic leakage.Logistic multivariate regression equation was further established.Area AUC=0.826 under the ROC curve of the model indicated that the risk model had a high degree of differentiation and an excellent capacity of predicting whether or not anastomotic leakage occurred after type Ⅲ CEA surgery.The average absolute error of calibration curve was 0.035.It hinted that the predicted probability of anastomotic leakage after type Ⅲ CEA surgery was in an excellent agreement with actual probability.Conclusion Through the above risk model,clinicians may predict the probability of anastomotic leakage after type Ⅲ CEA surgery.Conducive to identifying high-risk groups,it is of vital importance for improving clinical and nursing processes after surgery.
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Memo
收稿日期:2022-12-2。
通讯作者:李颖,Email:1137545396@qq.com